Trump vs kamala polls: We monitor surveys from across the nation and coordinate them to assess the state of the race. Ms. Harris’s ratings increased after she took over the Majority Leader designation from Joe Biden. However, it’s important to note that the American presidential election is not determined by the popular vote but by the Electoral College. Our projections are utilized in a forecasting model to evaluate whether a slim lead will be enough to secure Ms. Harris a spot in the White House. Additionally, please visit this page shortly after the main polls close at 6 PM Eastern Standard Time (11 PM Greenwich Mean Time) on November 5th for live updates and analysis of all the races in the election.
The Economist has been following the race.
In addition to the standard survey results, you can also access historical survey data for Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, surveys conducted after Ms. Harris entered the race, important dates in the election timeline, and candidate biographies. Stay informed with our daily highlight, “The US in a Nutshell.”
Editor’s note (Oct 14th):
We have modified the tracking procedure to reduce the frequency of daily follow-up checks, allowing for more efficient updates of the latest overviews while minimizing the impact of exceptions. These changes have resulted in only minor backward adjustments in our evaluations.
Key dates
The Republican National Convention will take place on July 15th.
After being held for four days, the conservatives officially selected their candidate, while the ineffective official opposition struggled in Milwaukee..
August 19th, Democratic National Convention
Just like at the conservative show a month earlier, the liberals officially announced their main competitor in Chicago.
The two main rivals faced off on ABC News a week after Labor Day, which is typically when Americans start paying attention to the presidential campaign. They exchanged personal attacks and passionately defended their visions for America. Ms. Harris caught Mr. Trump off guard by bringing up the former president’s legal troubles and his position on abortion.
Nov fifth, final voting day
The surveys will start on a Tuesday in early November. However, previous democratic elections and early polling efforts will lead many Americans to vote ahead of time. As a result, counting the ballots will take a considerable amount of time in some states in the region.
“June, Sixth, 2025 / Results Certificate”
Once every vote has been cast and counted, each one should be verified by the Congress of the United States. Typically, this is a routine process; however, in 2021, allies of Mr. Trump besieged the State House in an effort to obstruct the confirmation. He is currently under investigation for his alleged role in the attack, which was thought to be orchestrated by his associates.
We are looking at the commencing on 20th January 2025.
The new president will be inaugurated through the facilities of the Legislative center construction in Washington, DC.
Trump vs kamala polls
Kamala Harris
Vice-president
She is primarily focused on institutional legislative matters rather than being a thinker or ideologist, as she has attempted to portray on public platforms. Her official actions in 2020 did not go well. As Vice President, she is tied to the Biden administration, which is not widely popular, but it has passed significant legislation aimed at transforming coastal chip production and investing in renewable energy. If she hopes to overcome Mr. Trump, she needs to directly address his criticisms on immigration and outline a more robust domestic policy than what Mr. Biden was able to deliver.
Donald Trump
Former president
After his remarkable term as the 45th president of the United States, Mr. Trump embarked on an unprecedented mission, which was followed by a violent attack from his allies on the Legislative building. He faces allegations of inciting this attack, along with efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, leading to two indictments: one in federal court and another in Georgia state court. Although he appointed an attorney to defend himself against these charges, investigations are ongoing. Mr. Trump, a 78-year-old billionaire, denies any wrongdoing.
Mr. Trump is a very wealthy man who made and lost significant amounts of money in real estate before becoming a reality TV personality. His current mission seems to align traditional culture-war themes, such as “building a border wall” and “left-wing extremism,” with newer grievances, including those against the lawyers handling his cases and the authorities overseeing them.
On July 13, a shooter targeted Mr. Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, grazing his ear but ultimately missing him (one person in the crowd was killed). Following this incident, Mr. Trump briefly attempted to project a more traditional, post-election hopeful persona during a unification speech at a conservative event in Milwaukee. However, he quickly reverted to his previous behavior, resorting to insults directed at his political opponents.
Trump vs kamala polls:
Philosophy
To build our survey tracker, we modified a model created by political specialists Simon Jackman and Luke Manzello from the University of Sydney, along with Jack Bailey from the University of Manchester. Their approach views each survey as an imperfect measure of the ‘real’ support for each candidate. They use a measurable model to assess the “valid” voting intentions based on ongoing surveys.
This model takes into account the differences in methodology between various surveys and the often extreme biases adopted by certain polling firms, which can significantly affect their results. For our tracker, we aggregated polls that included Donald Trump and Joe Biden up until July 21, 2020, when Mr. Biden suspended his campaign for the presidency. After this date, we focused solely on the race between Mr. Trump and Kamala Harris, using only polls conducted after July 21.
The inconsistencies seen on July 21 can be attributed to the change in the Democratic candidate. In cases where a polling firm presents multiple results simultaneously, we prioritize surveys that exclude third-party candidates. Generally, third-party support tends to decline as the election approaches, partly because they often do not appear on ballots in many states. Additionally, we select polls that gauge the opinions of “likely voters” rather than “registered voters” or all adults. This choice aims to capture the factors influencing turnout on Election Day and the importance of participation in American elections.